Tom Turnbull’s Notebook

Real estate sales is just one more example of an old line industry getting reshuffled.  I’m guessing that the speed of change will only accelerate.  News of this settlement is very interesting.

It kinda/sorta started back in 1989 when I was attending law school at the University of Washington. One of the students decided to go work at an outfit called Microsoft. My little 512K Mac and I smugly thought that was a silly idea. Of course this was way before the rise of them Internets.

Ten years later (well, late 1997 actually), I finally jumped into the “space.” I figured that I should learn about digital media from within a large company. So, why not the Los Angeles Times? It didn’t take long to realize that there wasn’t too much learning to do. Everyone was trying to figure things out.

It was also extremely obvious that the newspapers weren’t going to keep up given that they wanted to have their online cake and eat their print revenue too.

So, the smart folks were jumping into startups - which had always been my plan.

I considered heading to GoTo.com (which became Overture.com, which Yahoo! bought). I can remember debating the stupidity of the paid search model (with me ultimately siding with the “it’s stupid” group). I sure missed that boat.

Instead, I went to BizBuyer.com as the 10th employee. I thought it was a sure thing. Lots of VC ($70 MM). Lots of brains. Here I am with my misguided “I’m worth millions” look.

BizBuyer was a learning experience. I hired lots of people and ultimately fired some (it got ugly after March 2000). For a while, it was amazing. I spent some of our VC war chest for surf lessons for the employees. Hey, why not?

Speaking of my judgment, I remember working on BizBuyer’s patent application with an attorney with Wilson Sonsini. He was fired up about his new search engine client, Google. I remember thinking “who needs another search engine?” Doh!

After BizBuyer, I left for CarsDirect, which became Internet Brands (INET). At this point (late 2000) the dotcom thing had lost much of its luster. We all worked hard and successfully soft landed this over capitalized beast of a company. It’s now publicly traded and focused on several attractive verticals.

I left Internet Brands to return to good ol’ Portland Oregon (I love this place). My assumption was that no real digital media companies could be located here. So, I took a job at KinderCare the largest daycare provider in the United States (which sounded pretty fun given my family situation). It wasn’t me.

At one point, I considered taking a job with Yahoo!. I would have commuted from Portland to Burbank Monday-Thursday each week. This would have been grim on the family front. Also, given everything that has happened at Yahoo! it could have been more generally grim.

So, I’m now heading up business development for SplashCast Media. Great team, great technology, great traction. I’ve been at this for a year and am enjoying it. I’m happy to be back in the game. I’m all 2.0 and stuff. I’m thinking it’s a keeper.

Plus, we are about to get a new office.

So, that’s my dotcom journey.

pl.obama_1007_5-18-08.jpg

Originally uploaded by oregonianphoto.

I wasn’t even there and it gives me chills.

Barack Obama Rally, Portland, Oregon

Originally uploaded by Ryan Harvey.

I’m really bummed that I didn’t attend this historic event. 75,000 people were reportedly there, making it the largest Obama event to date. I’m proud of little ol’ Portland!

I realize that Multnomah County is dark blue (70% Kerry vote in 2004) but it’s sure feeling like Obama is picking up more and more momentum.

Here is the article.

I can’t get into the SplashCast blog admin right now, so I’m posting my initial thoughts (speculation) regarding Microsoft walking away from Yahoo!.

This is a huge story. It’s the digital media story of the year.

Oh, and it’s not boring as charming French blogger Loic Lemeur asserts (with a few under his belt).

I’ve been hearing all kinds of convoluted theories about what is happening. My guess is that the simple answer is probably correct: Microsoft isn’t done. They realize that they represent the best option for Yahoo! and can wait them out.

As expected, YHOO is down big Monday morning. This is what Microsoft wants to see. It’s a big stock market “I told you so.” Microsoft let go of the rope and Yahoo! fell.

So my guess? Microsoft will jump right back in three to four months down the road and pick up a Jerry Yang-less Yahoo! up for a much lower price. That’s it.

That’s what I think.

It’s a lot more fun to speculate about other scenarios, however.

Microsoft needs traffic and advertisers. They are proven experts in software development. They haven’t been able to create the other two big pieces: massive traffic and advertiser relationships. There are some interesting non-Yahoo! traffic options for Microsoft.

The most obvious ones are the mega social networks: Facebook and MySpace (less interesting would be AOL/Bebo).

Yahoo! is last year’s hot restaurant. MySpace and Facebook represent the future (as far as anyone in this business can see the future). Traffic and engagement metrics point to the social networks as the place for advertisers to be.

Of course, it’s not as simple as saying Microsoft should pick up Facebook or MySpace. They would have to do some serious wrestling to pull the MySpace (or AOL/Bebo) away from Google. Perhaps it is possible, but it seems highly unlikely.

Facebook might be Microsoft’s next best option. Microsoft already owns a chunk of equity and owns the display advertising real estate on Facebook. So, why not play this out sooner versus later and purchase Facebook now?

There are several reasons why Microsoft might rather wait. First of all, the valuation will be crazy. However, that’s likely not enough to scare off Microsoft (especially if Facebook is viewed as one of the last great traffic sources).

Secondly, advertisers have not yet figured out a way to effectively generate revenue in the social networks. CPMs are very low. Banner ads have performed horribly there. That being said, there are other ways to generate advertising revenue (e.g., sponsored applications). This feels like a challenge that Microsoft might well be up for.

All that being said, my guess is that Microsoft will be standing by ready to scoop Yahoo! up off the playground asphalt on the cheap. If, however, Ballmer has seriously walked away from Yahoo! I’m guessing that Microsoft makes a play to acquire Facebook. If so, things will get even more interesting in terms of the ongoing effort to effectively generate revenue in the social networks.

Interesting times in digital media. Well, when hasn’t it been interesting in this business?

Note: There are two shows in the channel (2K Sports, Surfing Ocean Beach).

Really Really Dumb

Originally uploaded by Tom Turnbull.

Proof that our educational system is dramatically failing our youth. Or, perhaps, this guy is an outlier.

Notice the “rock and roll” sign with the cast.

Well, he’s having a good time.

New stairs to 2nd floor roughed in

Originally uploaded by Tom Turnbull.

The joys of remodeling and 1890s home. The stairs were shot. Here are the beginnings of the stairs for the next 120 years.